Warner Bros. is mounting a late-season push to seize the 2001 domestic box-office crown, driven by distribution chief Dan Fellman’s bullish outlook after the studio moved up the standings last weekend.

Fellman points to two heavyweight holiday releases still to come — Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone and Ocean’s Eleven, the star-packed heist film — as the fuel for a potentially record-setting fourth quarter for the studio.

At the moment (through Nov. 11), Universal leads the yearly grosses with $844.7 million (about 13% market share), while Warner Bros. sits second with $752.6 million (11.2%) and Paramount is close behind at $749.2 million (11.1%). Disney trails at $742.1 million (11%). Universal’s advantage is under $100 million, a margin many see as catchable given Warner’s remaining slate.

Part of Warner’s confidence comes from volume: while Disney and some rivals have pared back annual slates in recent seasons — Disney will issue just 14 films this year — Warner has continued releasing roughly two dozen major titles, maintaining a wide pipeline into the holidays.

Industry analysts note last year’s precedent: Universal opened five films at No. 1 late in the year yet still failed to claim the top studio spot overall, so late surges don’t guarantee victory. Still, some experts favor Warner this time around, arguing the combination of Potter and Ocean’s Eleven outweighs Universal’s remaining offering, Spy Game.

Historically the mouse has dominated — Disney led the box office seven times since 1990 and took last year with about $1.1 billion — but projections now have Warner in contention to finish around $1.2 billion and grab its first market-share title since the early ’90s.

Disney’s final position isn’t secure: Monsters, Inc. could lift the studio, yet Paramount’s Vanilla Sky and Universal’s Spy Game remain potential spoilers. At present Disney ranks as low as fourth in some tallies.

Current distributor standings (through Nov. 11): Universal $844.7M (13%), Warner Bros. $752.6M (11.2%), Paramount $749.2M (11.1%), Disney $742.1M (11%), 20th Century Fox $706.2M, Sony $639.1M, Miramax $563M (8%), MGM/UA $444.1M (7%), DreamWorks $399.2M (6%), New Line $386.8M. Specialty labels include Sony Pictures Classics $138.3M, USA Films $135.6M, Fox Searchlight $43.8M and Lionsgate $42.1M.

There’s also a corporate-angle wrinkle: combining parent companies with their specialty or mini-major divisions would alter the leaderboard — for example, Disney plus Miramax or Warner plus New Line — and certain specialty hits have been major contributors (Sony Pictures Classics’ Crouching Tiger accounted for roughly $115M of Sony’s $128M total this year).

Taken purely as a standalone distributor, Warner Bros. appears to have a straightforward path to the title if its two holiday tentpoles perform as expected, making the last weeks of the year a decisive stretch in the market-share race.

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